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用智慧和勇气携手渡河

发布日期:2018-09-10   点击:  

  Meet Mark Foster in Pennsylvania and Cao Wei in Henan Province. They are the first casualties of the trade war.

  来自宾夕法尼亚州的马克·福斯特和来自河南的曹伟,是中美贸易战的首批受害者。

  Mark, 55, lost his job to tariffs on steel and aluminum. The hard part was not only losing his job and money, but his independence. His company used pricy American steel, which led to higher production costs in the face of spiking tariffs, and resulted in job cuts.

  马克,55岁,因为钢铁关税,丢了饭碗。然而最糟的是,他不但断了生计,也失去依托。钢价受关税影响飞涨,老马的公司使用昂贵的美国钢,导致公司退出市场。

  Cao Wei, 56, runs a pig farm in China and is struggling with his farm business as soybean feed prices have shot up by 20 percent in recent months. He uses American soybeans, which were once cheap.

  56岁的养猪场主曹伟,因猪饲料价格上涨,同样陷入了困境。两月之间价格涨了两成,美国大豆不再实惠,老曹的日子步履艰难。

  Both Mark and Caoare like Tom Joad in John Steinbeck’s “The Grapes of Wrath.”They are kind, smart, ambitious and full of energy. They work their butts off for a better life. But their chances could be cut short by bad policies made for political convenience. Some leaders try to suppress economic truth and they need to be told so.

  老马和老曹就像《愤怒的葡萄》里的主人公汤姆·乔德那样,聪明、善良、有理想、有抱负,充满能量,一心一意为了人生打拼,两人的致富路,却可能因为政策之偏而白白断送。华盛顿那些违背市场规则的政客应该多听听人民的心声。

  Yes, they are all ears in Washington. Dozens of companies voiced concerns to the United States Trade Representative’s office on the administration’s plan to impose tariffs on a wide array of Chinese imports. Several blocks away, Chinese commerce officials met their American counterparts on how to stop the bleeding. But will they really listen?

  诚然,华盛顿并不缺听众。数十家公司聚集在美国贸易代表办公室,就加征中国进口商品关税一事费尽口舌。而几条街外,两国官员也密切磋商,1xbet公司,探讨中美贸易如何止血复苏。但白宫首脑是否听得进去,还不得而知。

  It reminds me of the story about a scorpion and a frog. They both want to cross a river. But the frog is afraid of being stung. The scorpion argues that should it sting, they would both drown. An agreement to work together!

  这让我想起青蛙和蝎子过河的故事。蝎子向青蛙求助,青蛙说,我怕你蜇我。蝎子答,如果蜇了你,咱俩都得淹死。青蛙想了想,便答应了。

  But is this where we are headed? According to estimates by Oxford Economics, tariffs from both sides will knock at most 0.2 percent off each country’s growth rate this year. That may not sound like a big deal, but both sides are betting it will hurt the other more, and so it has become a pain endurance contest.

  中美是否也会走上这条路?据牛津经济研究院预测,双边关税最多削减各国0.2%的经济增长,听起来只是毫发之伤,可现在中美贸易俨然变成了一场比谁更抗打击的耐力赛,双方都坚信对手会率先示弱。

  White House trade adviser Peter Navarro and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer have said the darkening cloud over China’s economy is a reason for the US to delay negotiations; Chinese analysts estimate America is less tolerant of pain because of its divided politics.

  白宫贸易顾问皮特·纳瓦罗和美国贸易代表罗伯特·莱特希泽说,中国经济的“黑云压城”是美国推延谈判的真正原因,而中方专家则判断,美国会因内部政见分化先举白旗。

  So is time on either’s side? I doubt it. Already investors are puzzled, employers hesitant and consumers hurt, but most worryingly we are less sure about ourselves. Tariffs are like nicotine, hurting slowly, but killing eventually.

  拖延策略真的会奏效吗?我看不然。眼前投资者已经一头雾水,雇主犹豫不决,消费者身心俱瘁,最令人堪忧的还是人们在贸易战中迷失的自我。关税好比尼古丁,慢性毒药药效虽缓,但终究会伤及根本。

  Halfway across the river, the scorpion still stings the frog, dooming them both. The frog asks the scorpion, “Why?” The scorpion replies, “It’s in my nature.”

  游到半途,蝎子还是没忍住,蜇了青蛙。两者双双沉入河底,青蛙问,你为什么这样?蝎子答,天性使然。

  Actually, nobody is immune to the combative animal spirit. But we know better than to succumb to the urge because we owe this to our history and our people. Both China and the US are crossing the river of economic uncertainties.They need to rein in the impulse to sting and use their brains and courage to wade through the water. Even the worst peace is better than the best war.

  其实每个人都有原始好斗的动物精神,但我们作为人类共同体理当超越动物本能,因为我们需要对历史和人民负责。中美正在贸易的大河中寻求登岸,彼此都需克服伤害的冲动,用智慧和勇气携手渡河。再糟糕的和平也胜过精彩的战争。